Cuba, already battered by economic turmoil, now faces an uncertain future as the US seizes oil tankers linked to Venezuela. This move has sent shockwaves through the island nation, raising concerns about its ability to withstand further economic blows.
A Nation on the Brink
The recent surge in US seizures of Venezuela-linked oil tankers has sparked fears that Cuba's already fragile government and economy may not survive. Experts warn that a sudden halt in Venezuelan oil shipments could lead to a perfect storm of social unrest and mass migration.
"I can't pretend I don't think about leaving," said Amanda Gómez, a 16-year-old Cuban student. "We're all considering it, young and old alike."
Long before the January 3rd attack, Cuba was already reeling from severe blackouts, long lines at gas stations, and supermarkets, all amidst its worst economic crisis in decades. The lack of Venezuelan oil could be the final straw, experts say.
"This will push an already dire situation to new extremes," said Michael Galant, a senior researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "It's a recipe for a collapsing economy."
Galant believes the Trump administration's goal is clear: "To cause indiscriminate suffering among civilians, hoping to instigate an uprising and regime change."
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"The Cuban people have endured suffering for a long time, and the government knows how to handle these situations," Galant added. "Predicting regime instability is difficult. From the US perspective, it's a waiting game. There's always a breaking point."
From 2020 to 2024, Cuba's population dropped by a staggering 1.4 million, largely due to migration spurred by the worsening crisis. Cuban economist and demographics expert Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos noted that while those with means have already left, migration will continue.
"Fuel affects everything," he said. "People will feel worse off, and those who hadn't considered leaving will now feel the need to do so."
At the Spanish embassy in Havana, 53-year-old doctor Ernesto Macías stood in line to request a family member visa for his daughter, having already obtained Spanish citizenship. "I hope an invasion doesn't happen, but I'm sure people will keep emigrating because there's no other way," he said.
Cuba's gross domestic product has fallen 15% in the last six years, with a 4% decrease in 2025 alone. While the Cuban economy never fully recovered after the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, it experienced relative prosperity between 2000 and 2019, driven by tourism and exports of services, nickel, rum, and tobacco.
Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with a radical increase in US sanctions under Trump's second administration, pressuring for political change and stifling every sector. Cuba's crisis erupted with force.
Throughout it all, Cuba remained dependent on Venezuela for oil, receiving an estimated 35,000 barrels a day before the US attack, along with shipments from Mexico and Russia. Yet, blackouts persisted.
"An indefinite shutdown of the electrical system is no longer unimaginable under a total suspension of oil shipments from Venezuela, which seems to be the US strategy," said Jorge Duany of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.
"It could lead to mass protests," Duany added.
Andy S. Gómez, a retired dean of the School of International Studies at the University of Miami, believes that even if protests occur, Cuba's downfall is unlikely while Raúl Castro leads the military.
"They're concerned, but their equipment is outdated," Gómez said. "The civilians aren't armed, and it's unlikely any of Cuba's army factions will break with the ruling elite."
Gómez believes that ultimately, either President Miguel Díaz-Canel or Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz will have to take responsibility for not solving the problems.
On Friday, US forces seized their fifth tanker as part of Trump's push to control Venezuela's oil distribution globally. It's unclear if any seized tankers were bound for Cuba, but experts believe any supply line obstruction would shock the fragile island economy.
"Cuba's only card to play with the US is mass migration," Gómez said. "Cuban authorities can control that. Cuban military forces are on high alert."
Gómez added that even if the crisis leads to unrest and the ouster of a top official, they'd likely be replaced by a well-known figure, continuing the government as usual.
"The Cuban people only care about one thing right now: putting food on the table, having electricity, a place to live, and a job. The government is secondary."
As Cuba braces for potential aftershocks, the future remains uncertain. Will the US strategy succeed in its goals? And what does this mean for the everyday lives of Cubans? These are questions that remain to be answered as the situation unfolds.
